Global growth is expected to remain resilient, reaching 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, according to the latest projections released Monday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF noted that these forecasts represent a slight upward revision for 2026 and remain unchanged for 2027 compared with the previous projections published in October.
The IMF explained that this apparent stability reflects a balance between opposing forces. Negative effects stemming from changes in trade policies are offset by positive factors, notably increased investment in new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in North America and Asia.
Amid easing trade tensions and favorable financial conditions, the global economy has continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience, adapting to a shifting landscape and displaying divergent dynamics across countries and sectors, the Fund said.
For the third quarter of 2025, global growth slowed to an annual rate of 2.4%, exceeding expectations, although weaker-than-anticipated outcomes in some countries offset positive surprises elsewhere.
Regarding global inflation, the IMF projects a gradual slowdown, with inflation declining from an estimated 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
These inflation forecasts are also broadly unchanged from those released in October and point to a more gradual return of inflation to target levels in the United States compared with other major economies.
As for global trade, growth in the volume of world trade is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2026 before rebounding to 3.1% in 2027, after 4.1% in 2025.
According to the IMF, these trends reflect anticipation effects and adjustments in trade flows in response to new policies. Over the medium term, expansionary fiscal measures in economies with current account surpluses should help reduce global imbalances.
