Since the resumption of soft wheat imports on September 16, 2026, the Moroccan market has entered a new phase of adjustment. After several months focused on marketing the domestic harvest, the return of international purchases is beginning to affect mill supply conditions, stock management and operators’ decisions. Although no official consolidated figures are yet available for the volumes imported since the resumption, several indicators already shed light on the challenges of this new phase.

The first impact concerns strengthening the supply security of industrial mills. The return of imported wheat comes at a time when domestic soft wheat collection has remained below the targets set for the 2026 crop year. According to data provided by industry professionals, around 6 million quintals had been collected, compared with an initial target of 15 million quintals.

This situation partly explains the decision to reactivate imports from September 16 to December 31, 2026. Following the suspension introduced in June to prioritize the marketing of domestic production, foreign purchases are now expected to gradually replenish stocks available to meet the needs of the milling industry.

Mills regain an additional source of supply

The return of imports comes in a context marked by several contrasting factors. The 2025-2026 cereal campaign recorded a significant improvement thanks to better rainfall. Authorities announced in April an expected cereal production of close to 90 million quintals, over approximately 3.9 million hectares planted.

This harvest was expected to strengthen the presence of Moroccan wheat in the domestic market and temporarily reduce reliance on international purchases.

However, total harvest volume is not the only determining indicator of wheat availability. The capacity to collect, store and make soft wheat available also plays a central role in ensuring regular supplies to mills.

The gap between overall cereal production and the volume actually collected therefore partly explains the reopening of the market to imports.

For industrial operators, the return of foreign shipments primarily represents a supply-balancing mechanism, allowing them to replenish available stocks and reduce the risk of shortages in the quantities destined for processing.

Import costs remain under close watch

The second impact concerns the cost of imported wheat. The resumption of international purchases does not necessarily mean an immediate reduction in procurement costs.

The public support mechanism is based on a fixed import premium, calculated according to the difference between the average cost of imported soft wheat at the port exit and a reference price of MAD 270 per quintal.

This premium is recalculated according to international market conditions. The mechanism takes into account wheat prices from several origins, including France, Germany, Argentina and the United States, as well as maritime freight, exchange rates and various logistics-related costs.

Logistics costs are already an important factor. Before imports resumed, freight for a 30,000-ton shipment from the Gulf of Mexico to Morocco reached $45.75 per ton, compared with $43.50 one week earlier. This increase alone represented approximately $67,500 in additional costs for a shipment of this size.

The final import bill therefore depends on a combination of factors: international wheat prices, origin and quality, maritime transport, port costs, exchange rates and the level of the applicable compensation.

U.S. wheat also enters the equation

The United States occupies an important position in this new phase. During the summer, Morocco launched a tender for approximately 364,000 tonnes of U.S. soft wheat, under the preferential tariff quota provided for by the free trade agreement between the two countries.

The operation reflects the Kingdom’s strategy of diversifying its sources of supply.

For operators, however, the choice of origin does not depend solely on price. Wheat’s technical characteristics, delivery conditions, transportation costs and cargo availability are also important factors.

The Moroccan market must therefore balance different origins and commercial conditions to ensure regular supplies to mills.

No automatic or immediate impact on bread prices

One of the main lessons from the resumption of imports is that the return of imported wheat does not necessarily mean an immediate reduction in bread prices.

For subsidized national soft wheat flour, the 2026-2027 mechanism maintains the selling price of wheat to industrial mills at MAD 258.80 per quintal.

The consumer selling price of national flour remains set at MAD 200 per quintal, compared with MAD 100 per quintal in the southern provinces.

The system therefore relies on public intervention aimed at maintaining regulated price levels despite fluctuations in supply costs.

The resumption of imports should therefore primarily be viewed as a mechanism to secure supply and limit market pressures, rather than as a mechanism automatically designed to reduce consumer prices.

Public support remains significant. Under the 2026 Finance Bill, the Ministry of Economy and Finance had earmarked a total allocation of MAD 13.770 billion to support the prices of butane gas, sugar and national soft wheat flour.

What impact will imports have on Moroccan wheat?

The return of imports also comes at a time when public authorities are seeking to enhance the value of domestic production.

The establishment of a reference price of MAD 280 per quintal for locally produced soft wheat was specifically intended to support the marketing of the domestic harvest and encourage operators to collect and store it.

This raises a central question: how can Morocco ensure the marketing of domestic wheat while also securing supplies for mills?

Stock management plays a key role in answering this question.

The availability of local wheat depends not only on the volume harvested, but also on its quality, geographical location, storage capacity and the pace at which mills consume available stocks.

Technical requirements in the processing stage must also be taken into account. Industry professionals point out that the characteristics of locally produced wheat may, in some cases, require blending with different varieties and origins to achieve the qualities sought by mills.

The coexistence of domestic and imported wheat therefore also reflects an industrial and technical logic linked to the quality of the final product.

Morocco remains dependent on international markets

The first data for 2026 show that the improvement in domestic production is not sufficient on its own to eliminate Morocco’s dependence on external markets.

According to industry professionals, Morocco had already imported around 2.3 million tonnes of soft wheat since January, confirming the continued importance of international markets in securing the country’s supply.

The resumption of imports since September marks a new phase in the management of Morocco’s soft wheat market, based on a combination of domestic production and imports, while taking into account stock levels, procurement costs, mill requirements and international prices.

In the coming months, global price trends, import volumes, domestic stock levels and the pace of marketing of the local harvest will remain among the key indicators shaping the outlook for Morocco’s soft wheat market.